Purpose: The study makes an attempt to investigate the long-term dynamic relation between CO₂ emissions from liquid fuel consumption by the transport sector (TR) and the ecological footprint (EFP) of two Asian emerging giants, namely, China and India. Four other variables, ‘Urbanisation’, ‘Trade Openness’, ‘ICT’ and ‘GDP’ have also been included under the study as control variables. The period of study is 30 years (1987–2016), and the data have been sourced from World Development Indicators and Global Footprints Network.

Methodology: The methodology includes testing for co-integration amongst variables by applying the ARDL co-integration model (with a single breakpoint) and its non-linear counterpart, NARDL. The error correction, testing for asymmetric impact and long-run elasticity are other aspects considered under the study.

Findings: Co-integration was established at 1% level for both countries, both under the ARDL and NARDL models. The long-run impact of TR on EFP was positive for both countries, with elasticity between TR and EFP being highly inelastic for India and somewhat elastic for China. The asymmetric impact of TR on EFP was not seen in either of the two countries in the long run. The long-run adjustment process through the ECM(–1) term was found to be stable, but the speed of adjustment was moderate @7% p.a. for China and slow @0.3% p.a. for India. All three model diagnostics were found to be highly satisfactory.

Study Implications: Adjustment speed at 7% p.a. for China and 0.3% p.a. indicates that for India, the long-run relation between TR and EFP would only be reached after a few years, which gives sufficient time for the policy makers to act towards deciding on the roadmap to sustainable development. Then, for India, the elasticity between TR and EFP was inelastic in the long run; this was fairly elastic for China, which implied that China was strategically better placed and well prepared for the transformation to renewable energy to run the TR, while India may have to continue with the traditional fuels for some more time.

ARDL, asymmetry, co-integration, ecological footprint, NARDL

Abbes, S., & Bulteau, J. (2018). Growth in transport sector CO₂ emissions in Tunisia: An analysis using a bounds testing approach. International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 41(1–4), 176–197.

Acheampong, A. O., Dzator, J., Dzator, M., & Salim, R. (2022). Unveiling the effect of transport infrastructure and technological innovation on economic growth, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 182, 121843.

Amri, F., Zaied, Y. B., & Lahouel, B. B. (2019). ICT, total factor productivity, and carbon dioxide emissions in Tunisia. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 146, 212–217.

Asongu, S. A., Le Roux, S., & Biekpe, N. (2017). Environmental degradation, ICT and inclusive development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Energy Policy, 111, 353–361.

Ayadi, A., & Hammami, S. (2015). Analysis of the technological features of regional public transport companies: The Tunisian case. Public Transport, 7, 429–455.

Brock, W. A., Dechert, W., & Scheinkman, J. (1987). A test for independence based on the correlation dimension [Working paper]. University of Wisconsin–Madison, University of Houston, and University of Chicago.

Brown-Steiner, B., Hess, P., Chen, J., & Donaghy, K. (2016). Black carbon emissions from trucks and trains in the Midwestern and Northeastern United States from 1977 to 2007. Atmospheric Environment, 129, 155–166.

Charfeddine, L. (2017). The impact of energy consumption and economic development on ecological footprint and CO₂ emissions: Evidence from a Markov switching equilibrium correction model. Energy Economics, 65, 355–374.

Charfeddine, L., & Khediri, K. B. (2016). Financial development and environmental quality in UAE: Cointegration with structural breaks. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 55, 1322–1335.

Charfeddine, L., & Mrabet, Z. (2017). The impact of economic development and social-political factors on ecological footprint: A panel data analysis for 15 MENA countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 76, 138–154.

Churchill, S. A., Inekwe, J., Ivanovski, K., & Smyth, R. (2021). Transport infrastructure and CO₂ emissions in the OECD over the long run. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 95, 102857.

Frey, S. D., Harrison, D. J., & Billett, E. H. (2006). Ecological footprint analysis applied to mobile phones. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10(1–2), 199–216.

Global Footprint Network. (2023). Footprint data platform. Retrieved, 21 September 2025, from http://data.footprintnetwork.org

Hassan, S. T., Xia, E., Khan, N. H., & Shah, S. M. A. (2019). Economic growth, natural resources, and ecological footprints: Evidence from Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 2929–2938.

Hussain, M. M., Pal, S., & Villanthenkodath, M. A. (2023). Towards sustainable development: The impact of transport infrastructure expenditure on the ecological footprint in India. Innovation and Green Development, 2(2), 100037.

IRENA. (2021). Renewable energy policies for cities: Buildings. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/May/IRENA_Policies_for_Cities_Buildings_2021.pdf

Nasreen, S., Mbarek, M. B., & Atiq-ur-Rehman, M. (2020). Long-run causal relationship between economic growth, transport energy consumption and environmental quality in Asian countries: Evidence from heterogeneous panel methods. Energy, 192, 116628.

Nathaniel, S., & Khan, S. A. R. (2020). The nexus between urbanization, renewable energy, trade, and ecological footprint in ASEAN countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 272, 122709.

OECD. (2021). Green growth indicators. OECD Publishing.

Perron, P. (1994). Trend, unit root and structural change in macroeconomic time series. In Cointegration: For the applied economist (pp. 113–146). Palgrave Macmillan.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.

Pradhan, R. P., Nair, M. S., Hall, J. H., & Bennett, S. E. (2024). Planetary health issues in the developing world: Dynamics between transportation systems, sustainable economic development, and CO₂ emissions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 449, 140842.

Saboori, B., Sapri, M., & Baba, M. B. (2014). Economic growth, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in OECD’s transport sector: A fully modified bi-directional relationship approach. Energy, 66, 150–161.

Salahuddin, M., Alam, K., & Ozturk, I. (2016). The effects of internet usage and economic growth on CO₂ emissions in OECD countries: A panel investigation. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 62, 1226–1235.

Santos, G. (2017). Road transport and CO₂ emissions: What are the challenges? Transport Policy, 59, 71–74.

Sasana, H., & Aminata, J. (2019). Energy subsidy, energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emission: Indonesian case studies. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(2), 117–122.

Satrovic, E., Cetindas, A., Akben, I., & Damrah, S. (2024). Do natural resource dependence, economic growth and transport energy consumption accelerate ecological footprint in the most innovative countries? The moderating role of technological innovation. Gondwana Research, 127, 116–130.

Shabani, Z. D., & Shahnazi, R. (2019). Energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, information and communications technology, and gross domestic product in Iranian economic sectors: A panel causality analysis. Energy, 169, 1064–1078.

Shang, W. L., Ling, Y., Ochieng, W., Yang, L., Gao, X., Ren, Q., Chen, Y., & Cao, M. (2024). Driving forces of CO₂ emissions from the transport, storage and postal sectors: A pathway to achieving carbon neutrality. Applied Energy, 365, 123226.

Sheng, P., & Guo, X. (2016). The long-run and short-run impacts of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions. Economic Modelling, 53, 208–215.

Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt (pp. 281–314). Springer.

Strand, R., Kovacic, Z., Funtowicz, S., Benini, L., & Jesus, A. (2021). Growth without economic growth. European Environment Agency , 1–13. doi:10.2800/492717.

UN Fact Sheet. (2021, October). Fact sheet on climate change. UN Sustainable Transport Conference, Beijing. https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/2021/10/fact_sheet_transport_general.pdf

World Bank. (2023). World development indicators. World Bank Group. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators?utm