Review of Professional Management
issue front

M. Narendra1,2

First Published 22 Feb 2023. https://doi.org/10.1177/09728686221148634
Article Information Volume 20, Issue 2 December 2022
Corresponding Author:

M. Narendra, Tower C 3407, Omkar Altamonte, Pathanwadi, Malad East, Mumbai Maharashtra 40097, India.
Email: narendra.mairpady@gmail.com

1 Former Chairman and Managing Director, Indian Overseas Bank, India

2 Adviser, ENQUBE Collaborations, Mangalore, Karnataka

Creative Commons Non Commercial CC BY-NC: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-Commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed.

India @75 years of Independence is marching towards India@100. India should achieve its significant position in the international community and transition from a middle-income to a major economy during the next 25 years. This is possible by gearing up all the wheels and motors of the economic engine—investments, savings, productivity, consumer demand and exports, done collectively. There is a strong need to bring in big reforms along with incremental changes in all facets of the economy to attract fresh investments from both domestic and foreign sources. While India should leverage the opportunities provided by the global economy, it should also expand its goal of a truly independent India by implementing Aatmanirbhar Bharat. India’s efforts to achieve an average 8%–9% GDP growth and reform towards Aatmanirbhar Bharat can be made easier by utilising the enormous potential of abundant natural resources, demographic dividend, qualified and talented workforce and extensive rural economy.

By 2024, Indian Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi aspires the country’s GDP to be worth $5 trillion. It took the Indian economy 8 years to double, reaching $2 trillion in 2014, and another 7 years to reach its present level of little under $3 trillion. Against this backdrop, may appear formidable to achieve the Goal by 2024; however, the country has the drive and potential to bring it about as early as possible. To quote from Collins and Porras (1994), all stakeholders must adopt this vision and implement it by acting and thinking BIG. The BHAG or Big Hairy Audacious Goal of an organisation is a captivating and potent endeavour (Collins & Porras, 1994).

Despite this appearing as a challenging goal, our drive for advancement makes us believe we can accomplish it. It is assumed that both the Centre and the states will adopt structural reforms, a strategic plan and a strong emphasis on exports, among other things.

Except for FY2016 and FY2017, when it showed growth rates of 8.0% and 8.3%, respectively, India’s GDP growth rates were on the decline. Only 3.7% GDP growth was recorded in FY2020, much below COVID-19s rate of growth. Additionally, the nominal growth rates have sharply decreased, falling from 19.9% in FY2011 to 7.8% in FY2020. India’s GDP varied from 7.9% in 2003–2008 to 3.1% in 2008–2009 to 8.2% in 2009–2011 to 5.7% in 2011–2017 to 5.7% in 2018–2019 (Reserve Bank of India [RBI], 2022a, Table I.1).

Due to COVID-19, India had to declare lockdown in FY2021, which caused a contraction of 24% in the first quarter and a contraction in GDP growth of –6.6% and nominal growth of 3.0% for the entire year.

According to the RBI (2022b), India can be expected to recover from the COVID-19 losses only in the years 2034–2035, taking into account the actual growth rates of 6.6% for FY2021, 8.9% for FY2022 and 7.2% (estimated by RBI in the recent April 2022 Credit Policy). In order to cover the annual losses, the RBI will need to raise the sums of 19.1 lakh crore (for FY2021), 17.1 lakh crore (for FY2022), and 16.4 crore (for FY2023). Budget 2022–2023 estimates that India’s GDP will expand by 8%–8.5% in FY2023.

However, due to the rising prices of commodities around the world, particularly food, oil and natural gas, as well as the high inflation projection internationally and in India, different agencies have reduced India’s GDP growth for FY2023 downward. The RBI has cut the figure to 7.2%. To reach its goal of a $5 trillion economy, India must have an average growth rate of at least 8%–9% during the ensuing years. With recurrent waves of COVID-19 and their associated output losses and effects on GDP, as well as recent developments on the geopolitical front, the challenges to India’s aim of a $5 trillion economy have increased.

Government and RBI Actions During COVID-19

Both the RBI and the central government have taken numerous actions to mitigate the effects of the first and second waves of COVID-19 to ameliorate the situation. Along with many other regulatory and prudential measures, both conventional and non-conventional, to support growth by the RBI, the central government launched Aatmanirbhar Bharath Abhiyan programmes in various phases totalling 29.74 lakh crores, including RBI’s 12 lakh crores. These measures included the injection of liquidity of 12 lakhs and the reduction of 115 basis points in interest rates to repo rate level of 4%. According to Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, the central government made numerous significant reforms and transformational changes.

The five steppingstones of Aatmanirbhar Bharat are as follows (Government of India, 2020):

Economy

Infrastructure

Vibrant demography

Demand

Structure

The five phases of Aatmanirbhar Bharat are (Government of India, 2020):

Phase I–Business including MSME

Phase II–Poor including migrants and farmers

Phase III–Agriculture

Phase IV–New horizons of growth

Phase V–Government reforms and enablers

Some of the measures taken under Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan are as follows:

Increasing the borrowing limits for state governments with the commitment of reforms and privatisation of public sector enterprises

Collateral free loans for businesses (including MSMEs)

Corpus for MSMEs

Subordinate debt for MSMEs

Schemes for NBFCs, for street vendors

Expediting payment dues for MSMEs

Prepack insolvency resolution framework for MSMEs

Increasing the limit from 1 lakh to 1 crore for start of insolvency proceedings, increasing investment limit for MSMEs by changing the definition

Facilities for corporate’s easy way of doing business

Concessional credit boost to farmers worth 2 lakh

Creation of Agricultural Infrastructure Fund for the development of agriculture infrastructure projects

Alternative working capital for farmers

Assistance to fishermen

Animal husbandry infrastructure development

Besides the above measures, the central government took three Agriculture Reforms Bills (subsequently withdrawn), Revised Labour Code, opening of commercial mining to private sector, bidding airports for long-term lease to private sector, the opening of partial areas of defence and air space to the private sector.

Some other far-reaching steps taken are as follows (Kumar, 2020):1

FDI limit has been increased from 49% to 74% in defence manufacturing and power distribution/utilities in union territories are privatised.

Pressure removed on migrants, labourers, poor, as the government had enhanced the allocation substantially to MNREGA by giving free food grain and direct cash benefits transfers to the poor.

However, there were suggestions to further enhance the direct benefit transfer (DBT) in the form of cash as a percentage of GDP substantially as elsewhere in the world. It is to be noted and appreciated that both the Centre and states took emergency measures to put up additional hospitals and facilities to cope with the enhanced requirements for overcoming COVID-19.

In order to enhance the growth on a sustainable basis, structural reforms are needed which will have long-term and medium-term impacts on the Indian economy.

Highlights of Budget 2021–2022

The Budget 2021–2022 included reforms like the privatisation of strategic and non-strategic Central Public Sector Undertakings (CPSUs), two public sector banks and one general insurance company. Privatisation of IDBI Bank and LIC’s maiden IPO (opened on 4 May 2022) are some of the significant reforms. The Budget 2021–2022 also included the creation of the National Infrastructure Financing Bank, an increase in the foreign direct investment (FDI) cap in insurance from 49% to 74%, the establishment of Asset Reconstruction Company (India) Limited and Asset Management Company, and a big push toward monetising assets by announcing the National Monetisation Pipeline (more than 6 lakh crores by 2024–2025; Ministry of Finance, 2021).

Production linked incentive (PLI) scheme was extended from 13 sectors to 15 sectors to boost manufacturing global champions for an Aatmanirbhar Bharat by allocating 1.97 lakh crores. The sectors are as follows:2

1.  Mobile manufacturing and specified electronic components

2.  Key starting materials, drug intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients

3.  Manufacturing medical devices

4.  Automobiles and auto components

5.  Pharmaceutical drugs

6.  Speciality steel

7.  Telecom and networking products

8.  Electronic and technology products

9.  White goods (ACs and LEDs)

10.  Food products

11.  Textile products man made fibre segment and technical textiles

12.  High efficiency solar PV modules

13.  Advanced chemistry cell battery

14.  Drones and drone components

15.  Semiconductors

As per the CRISIL (2022) analysis, PLI scheme will lead to capital expenditure between 2.5–3 lakh crores and 13%–15% of average annual investment in major industrial sectors. PLI scheme can generate additional revenue between 35 lakh crore and 40 lakh crore over the next 5 years.

The manufacturing industry’s quality improves as a result of the use of technology such as robotics and 3D printing, PLI and champion manufacturing hubs. According to the government’s plan, the manufacturing sector’s GDP share would increase by 20%–25% (PTI, 2021a, 2022a).

The contribution of the service sector is highest in India as compared to other sectors having 96.54 lakhs crores of gross value added (GVA) in 2020–2021. It accounts for 179.15 lakhs crores of GVA, which is 54% of the total Indian GVA. Agriculture sector is at the third place with 20.19 % contribution (Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, 2021; World Bank, n.d.).

According to a draft Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) report, the manufacturing sector should contribute $1 trillion in GVA by 2024–2025, increasing its present 17% share of GDP to 20% (PTI, 2019).

National Infrastructure Pipeline

PM Narendra Modi in 2019 announced the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) programme, with an initial capital of 102 lakh crores. However, its 6,835 projects have been expanded to 9,335 projects with total envisaged investments of almost 108 trillion between FY2020 and FY2025.

The main objective was to cover the fiscal years between 2019 and 2025 for both economic and social infrastructure projects. Total 70% of the projected capital expenditure in infrastructure in India from 2020 to 2025 is included in the NIP programme, mainly focusing on four sectors that are railways, urban, energy and roads, with 13%, 16% 24% and 19% expenditure, respectively.

In Budget 2022–2023 too, the government has allocated more funds for highways, roads corridors urban and rural infrastructure, shipping, expressways and so on. Apart from the infrastructure, the budget also focuses on the major priorities of opportunities that support sustainability (Sunrise), productivity enhancement and investment, and energy, transition, and climate action (Department of Economic Affairs, 2020). However, out of 9,335 projects, only 2,441 projects are under development (India Investment Grid, n.d.).

Public–Private Partnership (PPP)

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have played a key role in infrastructure investment and are responsible for the second highest number of projects. The PPP Appraisal Committee has approved 66 PPP projects between the years of 2014–2015 and 2020–2021, with a total project cost of roughly 137,210 crores (NITI Aayog, n.d.; also see, https://www.pppindia.gov.in).

Viability Gap Funding

The Viability Gap Funding (VGF) scheme was established to offer financial support to infrastructure PPP projects. In order to make infrastructure projects, including PPPs, commercially viable, the government provides financial assistance in the form of one-time lump sum grants or deferred grants. When it comes to social projects such as education, wastewater, solid waste management and water supply, VGF contributes up to 39% of the total project cost (TPC) and 20% of the TPC, respectively. The programme has a funding window of 2024–2025 with a price tag of approximately 8,000 crores (Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, 2020).

Enhanced Capital Expenditure allocation and Incurred:

The central and state governments have been more focused on capital expenditure. With a sharp rise of 34.5% over the 4.12 lakh crore allotted in FY2020–2021, the central government earmarked 5.54 lakh crore for capital expenditures in Budget 2021–22. States and autonomous organisations would receive an additional 2 lakh crore for capital expenditures. The government increased capital expenditure in the 2022–2023 budget to 7.5 lakh crores from 5.54 lakh crores, a growth of 35.4%, with an outlay of 2.9% of GDP.

The central government’s effective capital expenditure is projected to be 10.68 lakh crore in 2022–2023, or roughly 4.1% of GDP. Giving states more fiscal room through the allocation of 1 lakh crore in FY2022–2023 to help states spur overall economic investment and 50-year interest-free loans above and beyond regular borrowing (Ministry of Finance, 2021, 2022).

Asset Monetisation Plan

The government has set a target of 6 lakh crore through asset monetisation in FY2022–2025 with FY2023 target pegged at 1.67 lakh crore. The government has exceeded the FY2022 target by 96,000 crore as against the target of 88,000 crore because of transactions by central and state governments. Roads and highways, the power industry, coal mining and mineral mining make up the majority of the major sector monetisation at 2,300,000 crore, 40,000 crore and 18,700 crore, respectively (NITI Aayog, 2021).

Disinvestment

In order to raise money and close the budget deficit, the government has been disinvesting by selling all or a portion of its interests in Central Public Sector Enterprises. However, it is also true that PSU performance will be more transparent and efficient if CPSU shares are listed on the stock market. The government introduced a strategy of public sector enterprises in the most recent budget for FY2021–2022, which restricts its presence to just strategic areas such as banking, insurance and financial services, as well as atomic energy, space and defence, transportation and telecommunications. Additionally, the government wants to close or privatise PSUs in non-priority sectors while reducing the number of PSUs in strategic areas.

For FY2023, the government plans to disinvest 65,000 crore. The primary public issue of the LIC’s first-ever IPO, which was finalised and opened on 4 May 2022, was for $21,000 crore, and it was successful in raising the desired sum. Recently, there was a report advising against privatising Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd right now. However, no final decision has been made on timetables. The other two key companies lined up are Container Corporation of India Ltd (CONCORD) and Shipping Corp of India (SCI). Additionally, the government announced the privatisation of IDBI Bank, two public sector banks and General Insurance Company. Last year, the government was successful in selling Tata the rights to Air India. The government dramatically cut the disinvestment receipts planned for last year from 1.75 lakh crore to 78 thousand crore. However, the government has only collected 12,030 crore (Chakrabarty, 2021).

India’s Foreign Trade

India achieved its milestone merchandise exports of over $400 billion to nearly at $417.81 billion in FY2022. India has achieved service exports of $250 billion for FY2022 showing a positive growth of 21.31% over the fiscal year 2020–2021. Total exports of goods and services showed positive growth of 34.5% and reached an all-time high of $669.65 billion in April–March 2021–2022. The goal of exporting $1 trillion worth of goods by 2028 and $700 billion worth of services has been set by Government of India. Similar to exports, imports have increased by 47.80% in 2021–2022, reaching an anticipated $756.68 billion.

There is a decline by 3.5% to 27.8% in India’s total export and import of goods to GDP in 2020 from 2019. In a recent study, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Commerce stated that although India met its goal of $400 billion in merchandise exports for FY2021–2022, there is still more catching up to do in order to increase the merchandise exports to GDP ratio. Exports as a percentage of GDP (including both goods and services) were 18.7% in 2020–2021, down from 18.6% in 2019–2020 and 19.91% in 2018–2019. The GDP share of services exports in India decreased from 7.7% in 2018–2019 to 7.53% in 2019–2020, then increased to 7.7% in 2020–2021. As a proportion of GDP, imports of goods and services are 21.14%. The ratio of total exports and imports to GDP, which was at 38.2% in FY2015, was expected to drop to 27.8% in FY2020.

In comparison to the previous fiscal year, India’s trade deficit increased by 87.5% to $192.41 billion in FY2021–2022 (PTI, 2022b). Given the current spike in commodity prices, notably for oil and natural gas, this is expected to widen much further. Because so much crude oil—roughly 86% of the nation’s overall needs—is imported, the trade deficit will widen. This raises the import bill by $60 billion, according to Credit Suisse (PTI, 2021b).

FDI and Foreign Portfolio Investment

FDI serves as a strong complement to domestic investment and savings, which are trending downward, and it fosters business competition, fosters innovation and boosts productivity. It also increases the currency reserves. India attracted the most FDI, worth $74.01 billion, in FY2021 as compared to $87.55 billion in calendar year 2020. The amount of FDI received in the last 5 years has increased significantly, totalling $319 billion, or 50% of the $729.8 billion in FDI received in the previous 20 years.

This has been made possible by the opening of numerous industries to FDI, the development of the business environment, and numerous changes like the GST, tax reforms, and the decrease of corporate taxes, among others. Additional areas for development include labour changes, exit policies and state-level enhancements to the ease of doing business on a local level. We will also require more FDI in the future in order to realise our major manufacturing hub with PLI, NIP of 111 lakh crores, asset monetisation of 6 lakh crores, aggressive privatisation, and disinvestment. By 2025, CII and EY estimates predict that FDI would range from $120 to $160 billion annually. Massive efforts are required from the federal government, the states and the private sector (Kapadia, 2020).

FDI inflows decreased in India from $87.55 billion the year before to $74.01 billion in 2021, a 15% decrease. By 2023, the Industry Chamber PHDCCI projects $100 billion in FDI. The volume of FDI inflows is a crucial factor in helping India grow its economy to $5 trillion (PTI, 2022c). Net inflows were estimated as 2.4194% of India’s GDP in 2020, according to the FDI collection of development indicators maintained by the World Bank (https://tradingeconomics.com>India).

Foreign Portfolio Investment

There has been large foreign portfolio investments in the Indian stock market and the following data gives the extent of such investment:

2021 YTD: 44,778 crores ($6.28 billion)

2020: 170,262 crore ($23 billion)

2019: 101,122 crore ($14.36 billion)

2018 (net outflow): 33,014 crore ($4.39 billion)

2017: 51,252 crore ($7.76 billion)

As of 29 April 2022, there have been inflows of equity totalling 127,162 crore and debt of 7,950 crore in the 2022 calendar year. There appears to be more outflows that will affect the country’s foreign exchange reserves due to the inflation surge, global unpredictability brought on by the geopolitical situation, the recent interest rate increase of 25 basis points by the US Federal Reserve, the subsequent increase of 50 basis points, and likely future aggressive rate increases.3

Forex Reserves of India

According to figures released by the RBI, India’s foreign exchange reserves have decreased by 30% since March 2021 and currently stand at about $600 billion, or about 99% of the country’s outstanding external debt as of the end of December 2021 or 12 months’ worth of imports of goods in 2021–2022. India’s foreign exchange reserves were sufficient to cover imports for 17.4 months a year ago. In October 2021, India’s foreign exchange holdings reached a height of $642 billion. Geopolitical concerns, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy normalisation and other factors will have an influence on FDI and FPI inflows, all of which have been trending downward in recent months along with significant increases in oil import costs. Nevertheless, we can still consider our current foreign exchange reserves to be sufficient and comfortable. To retain our foreign exchange reserves at a sufficient level to cover any unexpected withdrawals, we must make every effort to increase exports, NRI remittance, FDI and FPI (Nayak, 2022).

Enhancing Private Sector Investment

Both the central and state governments have increased their capital spending budgets in recent years, especially during COVID-19, to assist the recovery and expansion of the Indian economy. Nevertheless, despite the tax decrease to 15% for new manufacturing units, fresh capital investment from the private sector was not occurring to the amount required. Additionally, capacity use decreased significantly during COVID-19 and has now recovered to its pre-covid level. Greater prospects for private sector investment have been created by recent government programmes such as PLI, infrastructure focus, asset monetisation, disinvestment and privatisation. Additionally, we are hearing signs of life in new Capex and Greenfield projects.

PM Modi has appreciated the contribution the private sector has made to the nation’s economic prosperity. We need significant private sector participation in addition to the government’s push for investments and infrastructure if we are to realise the aim of crossing the $5 trillion economy and then the $10 trillion economy.

In 2021, India’s investment reported a ratio of around 29% of its nominal GDP, down from 34% in the preceding quarter. A record high of 41.2% was reached in September 2011 while a record low of 20.7% was reached in June 2020 (CEIC, n.d.a).

Enhanced Savings Both Public and Private

According to a set of development indicators compiled by the World Bank, gross domestic savings (% of GDP) was estimated at 29.92% in 2020. Unfortunately, India’s gross savings have been trending downward. From 36% in 2007–2008 to 34.6% in 2012 to 30.1% in the 2019 fiscal year, it has been decreasing. As a proportion of GDP, household savings decreased from 23% in 2012 to 18% in 2019. For the $5 trillion economy to flourish, we need a significant increase in both private household savings and public sector savings (CEIC, n.d.b; Trading Economics, n.d.).

India’s Per Capita Income

India’s GDP per capita was estimated to be $1,797.76 in 2020, or 14% of the global average.4 International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook projects that India’s GDP (nominal) per capita will be $6,118.36 and $2,191 at current prices, respectively, in 2021 (Statistics Times, 2021).

Improving the per capita income is one of the goals of high growth. India needs to catch up significantly in this area. India’s GDP per capita increased in 2019 from 6.45% to 18.4% of the world GDP per capita. For nominal per capita, India is in the middle. It is 8 times greater than the poorest nation in the world and 60 times less than the richest nation. India is now ranked number 128 in terms of GDP per capita and number 33 among Asian nations. India’s GDP per capita was anticipated to reach $7,333 in 2021.

India’s Fiscal deficit

Due to the effects of COVID-19, India’s fiscal deficit for 2020–2021 was 9.3% of GDP. For the fiscal year 2021–2022, a fiscal deficit of 6.9% of GDP has been projected during budget 2021–2021. In addition, the budget deficit for FY2023 is projected to be larger than the target of 4.5% of GDP by 2026, at 6.4% of GDP. As a result, the gross borrowings of the central government increased and are now expected to reach around 15 lakh crores this year. Contrary to the Finance Commission’s suggestion, the amount of borrowings by the centre is currently higher than 80% of GDP and is expected to drop to 56.7% in 2025–2026.

These elevated borrowings from both centre and states have reduced the fiscal space for the government for developmental expenditures. With the enhanced growth in economy, it is expected that there will be buoyancy in tax collections which will gradually allow the government to cut the fiscal deficit to 3% as per FRBM Act.

The GST’s economic implementation has altered how taxes are seen in India. GST unifies all domestic indirect taxes under one heading, with two or three exclusions like those for alcohol, gasoline and other products. The tax share of GDP increased from 10.3% in 2020–2021 to 11.7%, the highest level since 1999. India’s gross tax receipts climbed by 34% to exceed 27 lakh crore in 2021–2022, raising the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10.3% to 11.7%, the highest level in 23 years.

It is encouraging to learn that GST revenues reached an all-time high in April 2022 of 1.68 lakh crore, compared to 1.42 lakh crore in March 2022. This bodes well for the current fiscal year and suggests that the improved trend in GST revenues will likely persist, assisting the government in reducing its reliance on the fiscal deficit.

India collected 9.45 lakh crore in direct taxes and 10.71 lakh crore in indirect taxes for the year 2021. The overall tax revenue collected by the union government increased by 34% to 27.07 lakh crore in 2021–2022, exceeding the goal by 5 lakh crore. Direct tax revenue increased by 49% to 14.10 lakh crore and indirect tax revenue increased by 20% to 12.90 lakh crore.

Analysis and Conclusion

This analysis demonstrates how the government and RBI, in particular the central government, took advantage of opportunities for great enablers by policy reforms and opening more sectors to the private sector to ensure that the Indian economy will quickly make up for output losses and concentrate on a substantial revival of the Indian economy and take forward with its pursuit of achieving $5 trillion. The Chief Economic Adviser, V. Anantha Nageswaran, recently expressed confidence that India would soon resume sustained growth of 8%–9% and would become a $5 trillion economy by FY2026. India today has one of the largest economies that is expanding the fastest (PTI, 2022d).

The IMF lowered its prediction for global growth from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023 in the World Economic Outlook, published in April 2022. The ongoing conflicts, rising commodity prices, supply disruptions, the COVID-19 and the lockdown of some of China’s major industrial cities, high inflation and the prospect of rising interest rates, the winding down of asset purchases and excess liquidity by major economies will all contribute to a reduction in global growth in the year 2022 and 2023 (IMF, 2022).

The aforementioned elements could have a significant effect on the Indian economy. In its most recent policy, the RBI hinted at reversing its accommodative approach. For the purpose of reaching the future economic path, price stability in monetary policy needs to be prioritised more, according to the RBI’s most recent Report on Currency and Finance. The RBI also emphasised that the government debt is outpacing expectations and exerting pressure on the long-term premium, which is causing growth to slow. Fiscal consolidation does not impede growth once the economy is stabilised. Unless strategic policy initiatives spanning both taxes and expenditures aim at targeted consolidation, the debt trajectory might significantly restrict fiscal flexibility (RBI, 2022, pp. 23–41).

In contrast to the prior projection of 4.5%, inflation is now expected to be 5.7% during 2022–2023, according to the RBI’s April 2022 Monetary Policy. The RBI has substantially reduced its expectations for economic growth in the current fiscal year, pegged at 7.2%, while sharply increasing its projections for inflation, which is a big challenge to India’s effort to reach a $5 trillion economy. The RBI raised the repo rate by 40 basis points and boosted the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points at its monetary policy meeting on May 4, 2022, in an effort to reduce inflation, which was 6.95% at the end of March. In April 2022, India’s inflation rate reached 7.79%, above the tolerance level of 2% above 4%. It is expected that there will be further increase in interest rates to tame the inflation in India (RBI, 2022c, 2022d).

The government’s ‘Digital India’ initiative could raise the GDP to $1 trillion. In fact, in 5 years, the government intends to boost the share of the digital sector in the GDP to 20%. The success of UPI by National Payments Corporation of India is one of India’s digital achievements to display to the world. The payment platform’s volume and value of transactions reached their highest levels since its introduction in April with 558 crore transactions totalling 9.83 lakh core. The notable projects driving to Digital India are as follows:

1.     JAM (Jan Dhan-Aadhar-Mobile) initiative

2.     DBT, initiative to connect panchayats

India can also emphasise on additional sustainable prospects like environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and climate change. In India, the emphasis has now shifted from profitability to ethical investing and ESG challenges. Though ESG is still in its infancy in the Indian market compared to the industrialised nations, it has begun to catch on. Institutional investors, venture capitalists, private equity players and high networth individuals have begun investing in ESG funds. This is seen in the corporates’ efforts to raise finance, which resulted in the issuance of approximately $9.4 billion in ESG bonds in India in 2021.

Another area of climate action is that India has voluntarily agreed to reduce the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions by 30%–35% by 2030.

Finally, India must make the most of the new commercial prospects presented by the epidemic, the geopolitical environment and other factors in order to maintain its rapid economic growth and eventually reach an economy size of $5 trillion and then $10 trillion. Our government’s policies and enablers are going in the right direction, and we’re dedicated to pursuing this further.

Therefore, it is crucial for all stakeholders to step up and make the dream of a $5 trillion economy a reality at the earliest. It is hoped that this will enable equity in addition to growth to provide job opportunities, increase per capita income and improve the standard of living for all Indians.

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding

The author received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Notes

1.   Also see, Aatmanirbhar Bharat Package. https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/anbp/

2.   Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Schemes in India. https://www.investindia.gov.in/production-linked-incentives-schemes-india

3.   See FDI statistics at https://www.cdslindia.com/Publications/ForeignPortInvestor.html

4.   https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CDlocations=IN

References

Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs. (2020). Cabinet approves continuation and revamping of the scheme for financial support to public private partnerships in infrastructure viability gap funding VGF Scheme. PIB Delhi. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1671910#

CEIC. (n.d.a). India investment: % of GDP 2004?2022. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/india/investment--nominal-gdp

CEIC. (n.d.b). India: Gross savings rate 1951?2022. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/india/gross-savings-rate

Chakrabarty, T. (2021). Vital stats: Disinvestment in India [PRS Legislative Research]. Institute for Policy Research Studies.

Collins, J. C., & Porras, J. (1994). Built to last: Successful habits of visionary companies. William Collins.

CRISIL. (2022). Report on production linked incentive scheme.

Department of Economic Affairs. (2020). National Infrastructure Pipeline. Ministry of Finance, Government of India.

Government of India. (2020). Building Aatmanirbhar Bharat and overcoming COVID-19. https://www.india.gov.in/spotlight/building-atmanirbhar-bharat-overcoming-covid-19


Make a Submission Order a Print Copy